naturally, since we are getting ready to cruise, i have been watching the tropical activity closely. especially with all of the ‘canes that have been going on in the last month or so. so i was very pleased last week when, all week, there was no clyconic activity in the atlantic or gulf (according to the nhc). then, on friday morning, there was a big yellow blob on the map indicating a low potential for tropical formation within 48 hours. that same afternoon, the blob was orange which means medium potential… yesterday was a busy day of having fun so i didn’t look at it at all. but today, the blob is twice as big and red – high potential for tropical formation. fantastic!

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEAABOUT 100 MILES SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO IS PRODUCING WIDESPREADCLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES…ANDADJACENT CARIBBEAN AND ATLANTIC WATERS. THIS SYSTEM IS SHOWINGSIGNS OF INCREASED ORGANIZATION…AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS AREEXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT TOOCCUR OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULDFORM LATER TODAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TOINVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ANDSTRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL AFFECT PUERTO RICO…THE VIRGIN ISLANDS…AND THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLAND THROUGH MONDAY. INTERESTS IN THESEAREAS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR PRODUCTS FROM THEIR LOCAL WEATHERFORECAST OFFICE FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM.